OIL DEPENDENCE IS America's Achilles' heel in the battle against terrorism--a fact that has not escaped the terrorists. Osama bin Laden and others have declared the oil supply a top target, and subsequent plots demonstrate that the desire to disrupt world energy markets is more than mere rhetoric. This significant weakness should factor heavily in current political debates about alternatives to oil.

When bin Laden dramatically addressed the United States in a video released on the eve of the 2004 elections, he boasted of his "bleed-until-bankruptcy" plan for defeating America. His focus on the economy is a primary reason that the terrorist leader reversed his original pledge to keep oil off limits as a military target. In his 1996 declaration of war against America, bin Laden said that oil was not part of the battle because it was "a large economical power essential for the soon to be established Islamic state," but in a December 2004 audiotape he reversed this promise. Declaring Western countries' purchase of oil at then-market prices "the greatest theft in history," he stated: "Focus your operations on it [oil production], especially in Iraq and the Gulf area, since this [lack of oil] will cause them to die off [on their own]."

Bin Laden's deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri called for al-Qaeda fighters to "concentrate their campaigns on the stolen oil of the Muslims" in a December 2005 video. Likewise, Sawt al-Jihad, the online magazine of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, claimed in February 2007 that cutting the U.S.'s oil

SAUDI ARABIA IS THE MOST critical oil-producing country that terrorists have targeted. Saudi efforts are vital to stability of the worldwide oil supply because that country holds 25 percent of the globe's proven reserves, produces almost 10 million barrels per day, and is the only country that can maintain excess production capacity of around 1.5 million barrels per day (a "swing reserve") to keep world prices stable. However, Saudi production is particularly vulnerable to attack because it depends on a limited number of hubs. Two-thirds of Saudi Arabia's oil is processed at the Abqaiq facility, and there are two main export terminals: Ras Tanura and Ras al-Ju'aymah.

Terrorists have in fact directed their efforts toward attacks against these hubs. In September 2005, following a 48-hour shootout with a cell in the seaport of al-Dammam, police discovered forged documents that would have given the terrorists access to some of Saudi Arabia's key oil and gas facilities.

Terrorists affiliated with al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula also obtained sensitive access to facilities for a February 2006 attack on the Abqaiq refinery, which is operated by the state-owned Saudi Aramco. Though local news sources played down the attack (one even described it as proof of "how tight and impenetrable the existing Saudi security system is"), written evidence submitted to Britain's House of Commons by Neil Partrick, a senior analyst in The Economist Group's Economist Intelligence Unit, paints a different picture. Noting that the attackers wore Aramco uniforms, drove Aramco vehicles, and were able to enter the facility's first perimeter fence, Partrick concludes that either the terrorists "had inside assistance from members of the formal security operation of the state-owned energy company" or else security was so lax "that these items could be obtained and entry to the site obtained." Either possibility is a concern.