'The Expansion Process Has Begun'
Russia's imperial ambitions are alive and well.
Reuben F. Johnson
"TRANSNISTRIA'S integration into Russia will proceed in several phases, and it may take 5 to 7 years," said the breakaway Moldovan region's foreign minister, Valery Litskai, to Russia's Interfax news agency earlier this month. "Russian society is now ready to expand beyond the . . . borders it has been forced into," he added. "The expansion process has begun." About the only phrases missing from this sinister declaration were the German "we need Lebensraum" of the 1930s, or the "you will be assimilated" threat of the Borg, the fictional half-human/half-machine alien race of the TV-series Star Trek.
There are many ways of trying to enlarge one's national territory--or to reclaim territory lost through the dissolution of an empire. The one tactic that has worked well in Europe's recent past is some version of the Sudetenland card used by the Third Reich to annex the German-speaking regions of Czechoslovakia. The playbook is simple enough. Agitate for the rights of a minority through PR campaigns led by a very vocal political movement within the territory's borders that has ties to (and surreptitious financing from) the nation seeking to annex the territory. This movement then engineers a "national" referendum calling for the territory to rejoin its motherland.
In the case of Russia's effort to assimilate the Transnistria region of the former Soviet Republic of Moldova, now an independent nation, the Kremlin has followed this well-worn script to the letter. On September 19, the slightly more than half-million residents of this region bordering Ukraine and Moldova (several hundred miles from the nearest Russian territory) voted to declare independence from Moldova with an eye towards an eventual union with Russia. Only about a third of Transnistria's population are Russian-speaking. Another third are ethnic Ukrainian, with the remainder a collection of Moldovan and other Balkan nationalities.
The legitimacy of this referendum was not recognized by the E.U. (or any other government), and has been denounced by the Moldovan government. But in Moscow the vote was heralded as the first step of a multi-staged effort for Russian reacquisition of territories lost after the fall of the Soviet Union. Moscow continues to maintain a military force of some 1,300 personnel in Transnistria.
Transnistria is not the only place where Russia and its political bed fellows are seeking to destabilize an existing government in order to regain Moscow's imperial holdings. Already there are plans in the works for similar referendums in the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions of Georgia. Russia has been trying to fan the flames of nationalism in some areas neighboring Kazakhstan, where there are large Russian-speaking populations.
But by far the biggest target of these destabilizing efforts is Ukraine. Russian national sensitivities have chafed for decades over the fact that in 1954, Soviet leader Nikita Khrush chev (who was Ukrainian by birth), moved the borders between the Russian and Ukrainian Soviet Republics, giving the Crimean peninsula to Ukraine to celebrate what he called at the time "300 years of pan-Slavic brotherhood."
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, calls for Crimea to be "returned" to Russia have never ceased. Their tempo increased after the election in early 2005 of a pro-Western president of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko. Mos cow has tried numerous ploys--including a threat this past January to cut off all natural gas flows to Ukraine--to weaken Yushchenko's hold on power.
Not surprisingly, Viktor Yanu kovich, head of Ukraine's pro-Russian Party of the Regions and now the prime minister, has used the issue of the Russian-speaking diaspora in Crimea to his own (as well as Moscow's) political purposes. During this spring's parliamentary elections, Yanukovich, who was Yushchenko's rival in the 2004 presidential race, promised to make Russian the official second language of Ukraine and to strengthen ties with Russia. Not surprisingly, his first foreign trip after becoming prime minister again this August was the one hour and forty-minute flight to Moscow.


























