BETTER TO BE LUCKY than good. That's an old baseball saying that applies as well to President Bush's reelection campaign. First CBS News--then the entire mainstream media--plays up damaging documents about Bush's National Guard service. But within hours, thanks to bloggers and not to any effort by Bush or his passive White House staff, the documents are exposed as forgeries. Next, the press is poised to promote a book accusing the president of having snorted cocaine at Camp David when his father was president. Again without the intervention of Bush, the White House, or the Bush campaign, the story unravels as the supposed source of the charge categorically repudiates it. And there's an even greater bit of luck for Bush. He has John Kerry as his opponent.

Bush has history on his side: An incumbent president who emerges after Labor Day with a lead almost always wins. And Bush has a real lead, not simply a bounce in opinion polls produced by a successful Republican convention. How do we know this? Because Bush was gaining measurably in the race before the convention. His job performance rating had crossed the key threshold of 50 percent in numerous surveys. Bush advanced in the Gallup Poll from a Kerry lead of 49 to 45 percent in mid-July and 50 to 47 percent in late July to a Bush advantage of 48 to 47 percent in mid-August and 50 to 47 percent the week before the convention. After the convention the lead had increased to seven points.

Post-convention, the Bush campaign is exactly where it hoped to be. The president's lead over Kerry has given him the luxury of sticking to his campaign plan. He'll spend September talking up his domestic agenda for a second term. The first half of October is to be devoted to debates (probably two) with Kerry. And the last two weeks are the finishing kick of the campaign. Along the way, Bush will address any national security issues like Iraq that may arise. But Vice President Dick Cheney will provide the tough talk on combating terrorism.

To the surprise of many, Bush has actually honed an effective economic message with interesting specifics, numbers, and comparisons. For instance, did you know that the 1.7 million jobs added in the past year in the United States "is more than [the jobs created in] Germany, Japan, Great Britain, Canada, and France combined?" Bush noted this in Colmar, Pennsylvania, last week. He also addressed the "subchapter S" issue: Under this section of the tax code, 90 percent of small business owners pay at the income tax rate, not the corporate rate. And since "70 percent of new jobs in America are created by small businesses," Kerry's plan to raise taxes on the two top brackets would be a tax on "job creators," Bush said. "It doesn't make sense."

By contrast, Kerry is tongue-tied. He won't talk to national reporters covering his campaign for fear of being asked about his claim of spending Christmas Eve 1968 in Cambodia. Nor will he sit down for questioning by columnists or commentators knowledgeable about foreign policy because he's bound to contradict his earlier statements. And not since Jimmy Carter in 1980 has a Democratic nominee been more unpopular with his base voters. I spent an evening last week at an event with Jewish voters, the majority of them Democrats. They dislike Bush, but have nothing but complaints about Kerry, mostly on foreign policy.

Kerry has done one important thing right. He's rejected former President Clinton's advice to concentrate almost exclusively on domestic issues. He can't win the Clinton way. The economy is in good shape and getting better. Health care always polls well for Democrats, but it's a mirage. It never produces the wave of votes Democrats expect. The reason is simple. The health care issue is tied to the economy. When the economy is bad, concerns about the cost of health care soar. When the economy is good, concerns fade. By itself, health care is rarely a voting issue.