THE BUSH CAMPAIGN has performed well since John Kerry wrapped up the Democratic presidential nomination on March 2. But not nearly well enough. The Bush TV ads have been crisp and clever and have put Kerry on the defensive. Speeches by the president and the vice president and a host of Republican officeholders have added to Kerry's distress. But there's a giant hole in the Bush campaign. Social and cultural issues, important to so many Americans who don't call themselves Republicans, have been all but ignored.
These issues--especially gay marriage--may cause discomfort when raised among elites inside the Washington-New York-Los Angeles axis. Country club Republicans may wince when social issues are broached. Everyone else in America, however, talks easily and without embarrassment about gay marriage and abortion and public indecency. And they often decide how to vote on the basis of these issues--ones where a large majority of Americans agree wholeheartedly with Bush and not with John Kerry.
Here's one issue: gay marriage. Bush seems to think it's political slumming to mention it. But promising to preserve traditional marriage is not a descent into bigotry and intolerance. Nor is it a cynical bow to Bush's base, which is already solid on the issue and knows the president supports a constitutional amendment barring gay marriage. All he needs to do is reaffirm in his speeches that, if reelected, he will work to preserve marriage. He can also point out that he's not attacking anyone, either, but merely defending an age-old institution from attack.
Why
say that? Because it's both true and politically helpful. An improved situation in Iraq and a growing economy won't guarantee Bush's reelection. Most voters have made up their minds on those issues. But Democrats and swing voters are deeply split on gay marriage. It's an issue on which Bush may be able to crack open the Democratic base and attract a majority of independents. But first these voters need to know Bush's position and that he's serious about it.
For now, they don't. His standard speech concentrates on taxes, Iraq, and terrorism. Sure, Bush has endorsed a constitutional amendment protecting traditional marriage, but he rarely alludes to it, and thus tens of millions of voters don't know his position contrasts sharply with Kerry's. If he tells them, Bush will find he has a receptive audience. Pollsters know this. Bush's top political advisers know this. Democratic strategists know this, which is why Kerry also never talks about gay marriage.
Prime turf for the issue is Ohio, a state Bush won in 2000 and cannot afford to lose this year. Ohio's economy is troubled, and Midwestern states have never been overly enthusiastic about foreign wars--bad news for the president's chances. But marriage is a powerful issue in the state. In the presidential primary last winter, an exit poll found a majority of Democrats oppose gay marriage. More recently, a private poll discovered that when swing voters in Ohio were told of Bush's and Kerry's positions on gay marriage, 43 percent said they'd be inclined to vote for Bush, and 26 percent for Kerry (who opposes a constitutional amendment). Among undecided voters, 51 percent said they'd side with Bush, 8 percent with Kerry --an astonishing six-to-one advantage for Bush.
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